Forecasting isn't easy. I always take stock of my hits and misses. I'm doing it early this year as I'm leaving the Guardian
I usually wait until December to grade myself for the prior year's performance. That won't work this year, as this will be my last column for the Guardian for the foreseeable future. So, this article will have to do.
I can start with a lesson that becomes more apparent to me each year: forecasting isn't an easy thing to do. We all get something wrong once in a while. Some of the misses are bigger than others.
This year I incorrectly thought that Bill de Blasio would not win the Democratic nomination for mayor of New York City. It wasn't that I thought Christine Quinn would win. Rather, I was torn between Anthony Weiner and Bill Thompson. After Weiner's whole drama, I settled on Thompson as the most likely to win.
I relied on polling and voting patterns that had held in New York City mayoral elections over the past few decades. Those ended up not holding, obviously. Perhaps, I should have seen it coming. There were a few smart people who did. (Looking at you Steve Kornacki.)
What differentiates me from the poll truthers of 2012, I think, is that I don't stay on course when it's clear I'm headed for an iceberg. When I'm wrong, I say I'm wrong. I saw the polling prior to the Democratic primary and reversed course. de Blasio and his advisers ran a great campaign that resonated with the people of New York.
Fortunately, I got a lot more right than wrong in 2013. I predicted that real gun control wouldn't be passed by Congress, despite the Newtown tragedy. I saw that early polling in Virginia's gubernatorial race was unreliable and thought by July the Democratic candidate would win. I understood that the cascade of the IRS scandal, NSA, and Obamacare's failures would lead to a decline in the trust of President Obama and hence his approval rating.
The truth though is that I learn more from my mistakes than triumphs. Acing a history test in seventh grade taught me nothing. Failing 95% of my grammar quizzes in eighth grade made me worker harder and become a better writer. My goal is that I can learn the necessary lessons from my 2013 errors and try not to make them again.
Going forward, I'll be learning from my mistakes in a new place. You never forget your first flame, however. The Guardian and the people who work here remain close to my heart. They gave me a chance when no one else did.
In case you can't tell by my picture, this was my first full-time journalism job. I went to the same school for pre-k through 12th grade. I went to the same college for all four years. The idea of leaving a place after a year and 11 months is not something I'm used to.
I remember the first time I visited the Guardian's New York office in a tie and jacket, and quickly realizing that I was overdressed. That was a good thing because I'm not a tie and jacket kind of guy. I may write on serious subjects, but I am not a serious guy.
I tend to write my columns while listening (on earphones) to 1970s, 1980s, or 1990s television theme songs. Two of my favorites are Full House and Moonlighting. I've been known to have a serious Cybill Shepherd crush.
Yet, my coworkers didn't shy away from my eccentricities. They embraced them. They understood that everyone has a different way of getting to the final product. None of us, not you or me, follow the same path. I am forever grateful that they recognized this fact of life.
I am above all thankful to you, the reader. Some of you might be sad about my departure. Others (hopefully a minority) are probably wondering why I wasn't fired a long time ago. And, of course, there will those of you who don't understand why they are reading about American politics on the Guardian. For the record, the Guardian is a global news organization.
Above all, you were willing to listen. Like many New Yorkers, I probably like to hear myself talk a bit too much. You were somehow able to put up with me, and that meant more than you can imagine.
I hope to see you around the bend.
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário